\chapter{Les néophytes}

\citer{Harriet Martineau}{Le sens de ma vie a été de penser et
  d'apprendre, et de partager en toute liberté ce que j'avais pensé ou
  appris. La liberté est en elle-même une éternelle bénédiction pour
  moi, après la captivité du début de ma vie.}

\begin{verbatim}
Métadate : 2.285-0:71:190 kD nouvelle epoch
(Lundi 1er octobre 2057, env. 3:30 PM)
Espace public n. 17
\end{verbatim}


17 - Darkness Gathers


"Beware of he who denies you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master."
Commissioner Pravin Lal, UN Declaration of Rights.

Monday, October 1, 2057 - 4:15 PM
(Metadate: 2.287-0:85:764 kD new epoch)
Washington, D.C.

The liaison offices of the World Intellectual Property Organization in Washington, D.C. were second in size only to those in New Delhi, India. Intellectual property came in several forms and included Registered Trademarks, Trade Secrets, Copyrights, and Patents. The most important by an order of magnitude in terms of monetary value were, without a doubt, Copyrights. The largest Copyright Cartel in terms of assets, capitalization, and number of copyrights held was, of course, the Indian Movie industry. The American software industry was a distant second, followed by the Indian and European software industries, the Motion Picture Association of America and Recording Industry Association of America, all of whom were neck and neck for an even more distant third place.
Even the most uninformed on the street understood the importance of copyrights, if not in terms of the larger economic picture for the entertainment capitals of the world, then at least in terms of the stiff penalties and long prison terms violations could incur. It never ceased to amaze Katy how many people of all ages continued to break the law and violate copyright despite that. You would think that after three generations of stiff, even draconian, penalties, widespread educational programs on the subject, unrelenting enforcement and unceasing reminders in all the media, that intellectual property crimes would be down. Unfortunately the government's war against intellectual property criminals had proven even more intractable than its earlier and much more infamous War on Drugs. Images of the ongoing war in Thailand flashed silently across the wall screen in Katy's hotel room as part of the news summary she had downloaded, reminding her grimly of just how far beyond the so-called War on Drugs the war for the protection of intellectual property had escalated. Hundreds of thousands dead in three countries, with no end to the fighting in sight.
Most people were not aware of the importance of patents in the modern economy. Patents did not affect everyday life -- individuals didn't violate patents when buying a consumer product, or downloading a new episode of their favorite prime time show. Indeed, people were, for the most part, unaware of the importance of patents in no small part because these patents were used to strategically, and quietly, prevent the development of a new, competing product at least as often as they were to secure exclusive rights to a new product. Whether it was patents on software providing authorities with an avenue for relentless prosecution of would-be Free Software anarchists, system security crackers, and authors of computer  virus, patents on pharmaceuticals protecting American industries from third world generics and helping to keep the pace of development down to a level federal regulators could keep up with, or patents on new devices the ramifications of which industry and political leadership didn't yet know, the scenario was largely the same. Claims would overlap with patents granted to other entities, either by other governments, or by the same patent office for similar but slightly different applications, and a complicated series of negotiations would ensue. Eventually the parties involved would either come to an agreement, cross-license the appropriate intellectual property and share in the dividends of a new product, or negotiations would fail and the product would be frozen, undeveloped by both sides until such a time as conditions changed or new negotiations reached a settlement. The process lent stability to industries that had been turned on their head by the breakneck changes of the turn of the century. The livelihood of millions was protected by change which came at a methodical, slow, and above all, predictable pace.
Katy sighed and blanked the wallscreen, then ordered a live pay-per-view of the Vienna Philharmonic. As Brahm's third symphony washed over her Katy reclined on her bed, relaxing at last. For a few short moments her mind just floated with the music, restful and at peace. Her reverie was short, however, as another part of her began to replay the day's meetings in her mind. With another sigh she turned down the music and tapped her datapad, going over her notes as her thoughts continued to review the day's events.
The meeting with her superiors at the FBI offices was relatively mundane and offered no new insights. She already had all of the information the FBI possessed regarding the mysterious devices. It had been a political show, her representing both her department and herself to those who wielded power above her. As frustrating as it had been spending so much time in pointless conversation and review, and as irritated as she had been at Robert Leahy as he sat there, silent and smiling sardonically, it had been important. There would almost certainly come a time in her career when she would value the contacts she had made today. Depending on what turns and twists this case took, she might value those contacts quite a bit sooner than she really expected.
The second meeting was held several miles away, in the WIPO offices for Patent Enforcement a few blocks from the nation's capitol. While patents were in many ways far more important to national security and international stability than copyrights (regardless of what the official propaganda might say), the reason for that meeting had, from her standpoint, been much more pragmatic.
The devices they had recovered might contain copyrighted material, indeed, Katy was certain they would find at least as much contraband on them as one would expect from a standard FreeNet node. However, they didn't even know for certain what the devices were, much less what data and software, if any, might be stored in them. Until they were able to access and decode whatever data was there, they would be unable to proceed with any arrests or prosecution for copyright violations.
However, each device was clearly in violation of numerous patents. Katy had suspected as much, but even she was surprised at the number of patents which had been ignored and trampled upon in their construction. Patents for chemical processes for extracting polymers, patents on processes for doping polymers with various compounds (including gallium), patents on various superconductive materials (albeit at much lower temperatures), patents on molecular storage, patents on molecular and optical-molecular switching (theoretical), and patents on direct digital to neural interfaces (banned by international treaty). There was even a patent on the synthetic formation of quartz crystals as a protective surface (she was surprised to learn that, indeed, the surface of the smaller cubes appeared to be coated with diamond, which, it was believed, must have made use of the same, patented, technique).
Then there were the numerous software patents which would come into play, should it turn out that the crystal cubes were, indeed, molecular storage devices. And if they were in fact computers? Then a whole plethora of patents on everything from basic operating system procedures to high level data aggregation programs would come into play.
Even without any direct evidence of copyright violations, those found in possession of these devices would be sentenced to centuries in Federal Prison and find themselves working as forced labor to pay reparations for the patent violations alone.
"The World Intellectual Property Organization views these violations with grave concern," a heavy set, balding man whose name she couldn't recall (Paul Eisner, her datapad informed her) had told her from across the conference table.
"You understand, Ms. Sinclair, that we cannot sit by while the illegal manufacture such equipment continues. Corporate competition is extremely cutthroat as it is. If it were to become common knowledge that some small manufacturers were getting away with such gross patent violations some of the legitimate corporations might lose faith in the process." another man (her datapad identified him as Edward McDughal) had added.
"Competitive pressures might lead one or more of the larger corporations to disregard a patent here or there and bring an encumbered or even illegal product to market," a striking woman, mature, with silver hair, a slim figure, impeccably if conservatively dressed pointed out.
"Such an occurrence would almost certainly have a domino effect, as competition for consumer wealth drives more and more companies to bring unlicensed products to market," added another.
"It could bring down the entire patent system if it were to go unchecked," Paul Eisner concluded.
"We need these offenders found and buried within the penal system," McDughal told them. "We are counting on the FBI and Double Eye to wrap this up quickly and, above all, discreetly."
Both Katy and Robert had made the appropriate noises, thanking the World Trade and Intellectual Property Directors for the information they had provided and reassuring them that the investigation was on track and would be conducted with the utmost confidentiality.
Robert had fumed as the limousine had pulled through the guarded gate back onto the street.
"Idiots!" he said, shaking his head with disgust. "Fools! They are confronted with new, revolutionary technology our best scientists can't make heads or tails of and all they worry about is an economic downturn or the possible erosion of their own authority. This technology isn't just a threat to their Intellectual Property Regime. Hell, even if their precious Patent system did suffer a crises, a simple crackdown on the offending corporations and their respective governments by the World Trade Organization would suffice to bring the sheep back into line."
Katy shook her head. "They're right, though. Something like this could undermine one of the sustaining pillars of our economy. It isn't something to take lightly."
"Of course it isn't! But those imbeciles can't see the potential ramifications glaring beneath their own noses! This could be far more serious than a short term breakdown in the authority of a few international bodies, or even a little economic dislocation. Those things have happened before and our institutions have always coped. We have tried and true methods for bringing such things back under our control. What they -- what we all -- should be concerned with is the fact that someone is able to build and use devices so much more advanced than anything we know that we can't even determine for sure what it is, much less what it is used for. You yourself pointed out that you didn't trust any of your assumptions about the hardware, and you are absolutely right to mistrust any assumptions we make."
"Whether it is a FreeNet node, a new entertainment device,or even a VR gaming interface, isn't really important," Katy began.
"Mate, we don't even know if the thing is a God damned computer. For all we know it could be a bomb, a communicator tied into some mother ship in orbit we can't see, or a death ray. The technology is beyond us. We don't understand it. Any assumptions we make are almost certain to be wrong.
"What is worse, this stuff is in the hands of seditious malcontents and revolutionaries. We aren't talking about thirty bioengineers with a little more knowledge in their specialty than the rest of us leading a revolt here, we're talking about people with a manufacturing base than can produce products decades ahead of anything we have. If our guesses about the manufacturing and consumer base are even close to accurate, we're looking at something on the order of fifty thousand subversives, all armed with vastly superior technology to our own. Not some small group we can arrest, cart off to some UN prison and put to work packing relief supplies." Robert shook his head in disgust. "Those idiots at WIPO are worried about a little corporate disobedience when the barbarians are knocking at the city gates!"
Katy sat there quietly, pondering what he had said. After several moments' awkward silence she replied. "'Any assumptions we make are almost certain to be wrong.' How do we know these weren't prototypes? I don't think we can assume an installed base of fifty thousand of these things. The number could be very much smaller."
"Or much larger," Robert countered, "There could be millions of these things."
Katy withdrew her datapad and tapped the screen.
"Now what are you doing?"
"A little math," she replied. "Assuming a random sampling, based on the number of recovered devices versus the number of arrests made during the same time, we have a lower bounds of 375 devices. This assumes only known subversives have purchased any, an unlikely assumption as there are almost certainly subversive we have not yet identified." She tapped another icon and a graph appeared. "Assuming such devices are widespread, 'in the millions' as you put it, based on the sample per persons arrested there could be as many as 115,000 such devices in American homes. However, if we take into account the absolute silence on both the street and the Internet about such devices and apply the Jeraue Model to calculate the probability of such a secret becoming public rumor against the number of alleged conspirators, the --" she paused. "Damn. According to this the probability of exposure approaches one hundred percent at around fifty persons."
Robert shook his head. "The Jeraue model only applies to loosely knit groups. Where there is regimen, or a standard revolutionary cell organization, you have to apply either the Sparrow-Faulkner or the Friedkin model." He withdrew his own datapad and ran some quick calculations. "Assuming an average cell of four persons, the probability of someone letting the cat out of the bag and exposing the existence of the group is around seventy percent at nine hundred persons, and asymptotically approaches one hundred percent at about twelve hundred. Overlaying your numbers..." he paused, then smiled "...we get a reasonable estimate of somewhere between five hundred and nine hundred units, with an eighty per cent probability of the actual number being somewhere between seven and eight hundred units."
"Not quite the fifty thousand you were worried about a few minutes ago," Katy observed wryly.
"Point taken. But let's not forget we are playing an elaborate guessing game. We are, after all, dealing with an unknown group, of unknown intentions, using unknown methods and employing technology whose function we can only guess at."
Katy nodded in agreement. "You're right. Our assumptions, particularly with respect to communications leaks and rumors, could be completely wrong as well. Take, for example, the hypothesis that the devices in question are in fact neither a storage, playback, or computational device, but rather are some kind of an undetectable, wireless communications apparatus."
"Indeed, it could throw our numbers off by an order of magnitude."
"Or more," Katy agreed. "Still, I think seven or eight hundred units is a reasonable first hypothesis. More than enough to worry about, but not enough to instill panic just yet."
"Indeed not," Robert agreed, once again calm and composed.
