INTERNATIONAL  TELECOMMUNICATION  UNION

		     ITU-T RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY


Rec. No. : E.506

Title : Forecasting international traffic

Study Group : II - Network Operation

Version : Revised

Date of adoption : 1992

Notes :	


Recommendation E.506 is the first in a series of three Recommendations 
that cover international telecommunications forecasting.

In the operation and administration of the international telephone 
network, proper and successful development depends to a large degree 
upon estimates for the future. Accordingly, for the planning of 
equipment and circuit provision and of telephone plant investments, it 
is necessary that Administrations forecast the traffic which the 
network will carry. In view of the heavy capital investments in the 
international network, the economic importance of the most reliable 
forecast is evident.

The purpose of Recommendation E.506 is to give guidance on some of the 
prerequisites for forecasting international telecommunications 
traffic. Base data, not only traffic and call data but also economic, 
social and demographic data, are of vital importance for forecasting. 
These data series may be incomplete; strategies are recommended for 
dealing with missing data. Different forecasting approaches are 
presented including direct and composite methods, matrix forecasting, 
and top down and bottom up procedures.

Recommendation E.507 provides guidelines for building forecasting 
models and contains an overview of various forecasting techniques. 
Recommendation E.508 covers the forecasting of new international 
telecommunications services.



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